Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Lesson #110: When to Drive Growth vs. Profits
Posted By: George Deeb - 3/20/2012Last week, Lisa Leiter at Crains Chicago wrote a great article "When Should a Startup Worry About Making Money?" It raised g...
Last week, Lisa Leiter at Crains Chicago wrote a great article "When Should a Startup Worry About Making Money?" It raised good questions on when a startup should focus on driving growth vs. driving profits. It is an important topic for startup executives to understand the underlying issues, and I am going to drill down deeper with more thoughts on this topic.
This really is not a simple question to answer. There are so many nuances that go into assessing the right answer. What is going on with the economy? How liquid is the fundraising climate? Are you B2B or B2C? Are you the first mover? How defensible is your business, with patents, product complexity or otherwise? What are your competitors doing? How big is the market opportunity? How quickly is it emerging? Are you trying to dominate the world, or build a nice lifestyle business? Are you venture backed, or privately owned? So, in light of all these moving pieces, I will do my best to layout some high level guidance.
Based on the above questions: (i) the softer the economy, the more you should protect your cash reserves to weather the storm; (ii) the better the financing climate, the more comfortable you should feel in accelerating growth with access to investors; (iii) I think B2C businesses need to think "faster" than B2B businesses, given the nuances of consumer behavior vs. corporate behavior; (iv) it is always best to be the first mover, and accelerate your lead when you can (or catch up if you are not first); (v) the more complex or defensible your business, the less speed becomes an issue; (vi) the larger the market, the more room there is for multiple companies to thrive, and hence speed becomes less an issue; (vii) brand new markets or business concepts are typically dominated by the first mover, so move quickly at the expense of profits; and (viii) venture backed businesses trying to dominate the world, need to move quickly to ensure growth and liquidity value for your investors.
Let's use Groupon as a case study. They are the fastest growing company in the history of business. They went from zero revenues in 2008 to a forecasted $3BN of revenues forecasted for 2013. And, they spent hundreds of millions of dollars in capital and startup losses, to acheive a dominant market position in the revolutionary B2C "daily deals" space. Why was that the right answer and strategy for Groupon? First of all, their product was not all that hard to build, and their early success spawned hundreds of competitors. Secondly, they were the first mover with a highly-lucrative new business model, and they wanted to dominate the global markets before anyone else did. And thirdly, their biggest competitor Living Social was also investing hundreds of millions of dollars in trying to catch up and take the lead in the daily deals space. What was the outcome: a publicly traded Groupon valued at $10BN and forecasted to drive $400MM in net profit in 2013 (its fifth year of business).
Facebook was an equally successful, but different story. There wasn't a clear e-commerce model to drive revenues with. And, their executives and investors decided the idea was so revolutionary, as a communication platform, that it was critical to get all consumers locked up, even without a clear revenue model. And, that they did, amassing hundreds of millions of users worldwide, on the shoulders of hundreds of millions of dollars of startup capital. And, similar to the premise of the Field of Dreams movie, if you build it, the revenues will come, soon thereafter. Sure enough, Facebook does about $4BN in advertising-based revenues today, and is estimated to go public in 2012 at a valuation of around $100BN. Not a shabby return on their investment!!
Now let's look at a third example, this time for a slow mover. Streampix is the new online streaming movie service by Comcast, launched to go head-to-head with Netflix. This was already a very crowded space with YouTube, Hulu, Redbox, Blockbuster, Amazon, iTunes and others trying to dominate online movie streaming. But, why was that a good launch for Comcast? They already had all the studio and network relationships? They already had the cable box hardware in everyone's homes, so an easy upsell? It was a simple message to consumers to simply stream online movies from Comcast, instead of Netflix, for a lower price already bundled into your cable service. And, Comcast is much better funded, to afford the high content licensing costs with the film studios. Time will tell if Streampix succeeds or not. But, this slow mover has as good a chance as anybody, given the nature of this industry and its current market dynamics.
As I said before, each business has its own considerations. Study your options, and plan accordingly. And, where you can, I am always a fan of moving faster before your competitors do. If you have specific questions about what is the right path for your business, simply let us know.
For future posts, please follow me at: www.twitter.com/georgedeeb.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Howard Tullman's Acceptance Speech at the Chicago Entrepreneurship Hall of Fame
Posted By: George Deeb - 3/12/2012Howard Tullman is a serial entrepreneur in Chicago, and the current Founder and CEO of the highly successful Tribeca Flashpoint Media Arts A...
Below is an excerpt from Howard’s acceptance speech, that Howard graciously allowed me to share with all of you. There are some terrific words of wisdom herein, for all you aspiring entrepreneurs:
Monday, March 5, 2012
Lesson #109: Financing with Equity vs. Debt vs. Convertibles
Posted By: George Deeb - 3/05/2012Entrepreneurs are not always aware of the various financing structures that may be available to them when raising new capital to finance...
Entrepreneurs are not always aware of the various financing structures that may be available to them when raising new capital to finance their growth. And, even if they are, they are not always sure what fair terms look like when receiving term sheets from investors. So, I solicited the help of my good colleague, Michael Gray, a Partner at Neal, Gerber & Eisenberg (www.ngelaw.com), and one of the best startup/venture lawyers in Chicago, to help me provide you with a high-level education on your options here. Michael clearly has his finger on the “market pulse” given his large base of angel and venture backed clients as well as his representation of venture capital firms. In this lesson we will explore the plusses and minuses of equity vs. convertible debt vs. venture debt, for your consideration. Please note that there are many subtleties to each of the securities discussed below and this does not address many of them, but is meant to give a very broad overview.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Key Digital Investment Themes in 2012
Posted By: George Deeb - 3/01/2012A local private equity firm recently asked me to summarize my thoughts on what I saw as the key investment themes they could consider in bu...
A. Social-Local-Mobile will evolve to Hypersocial-Hyperlocal-Hypermobile as more and more interesting applications get developed.
So, if you are entrepreneur considering which avenues to pursue, following one of the above themes could prove fruitful for you. And, if you feel that I am missing any, please add them to the comments field below.
For future posts, please follow me at: www.twitter.com/georgedeeb
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Lesson #108: How to Determine Your Revenue Model
Posted By: George Deeb - 2/21/2012One of the first questions a potential investor is going to ask you is "how do you plan to make money". It is critical you ha...
One of the first questions a potential investor is going to ask you is "how do you plan to make money". It is critical you have a well-thought-through plan here for the long term, even if revenues will be minimal in the short term. As you will read herein, revenue models can vary based on: (i) your industry; (ii) your product or service within that industry; and (iii) what your direct competitors are doing. Today's lessons will address these three areas, as well as (iv) assessing whether your revenue plan passes the sanity check for your business and prospective investors.
Every industry has a certain revenue model history and expectation from customers. For example, the retail industry sets a retail price on their products, that includes enough gross profit margin to cover the cost of the product itself and the other proportional costs of running the business. The publishing industry drives revenues from subscription fees for their content, or from advertisers wanting to get in front of their large base of readers. Technology companies sell their products either under installed license contracts (big upfront payment), or as a hosted software-as-a-service (small monthly payments). So, research what is normal in your industry, as it will be easiest to sell through to prospective customers.
That said, there is no rule you cannot think out of the box, if you have a new way to approach the business that customers will appreciate. Think about iTunes and how they revolutionized the purchase of music. Before the internet and companies like iTunes, you would need to go to a retail music store like Tower Records and buy an entire CD for $14.99 (if they had it in stock). With iTunes, not only were you guaranteed they had it in stock, but you could simply buy the one track you wanted for $0.99, from the convenience of your home. It revolutionized the music buying experience for consumers. But, at the same time, the model really hurt the music labels, that were seeing a fraction of revenues from music sales than they were seeing in the past, forcing them to change their models to drive more revenues from live concert tours than ever before.
Secondly, within any one industry, there can be many variable revenue models to consider. Let's look at the travel industry, as an example. A tour operator adds a 35% gross margin to the net cost of their tours. A travel agent takes a 15% commission for selling a tour operator's tour. A travel website sells advertising on its website at a $10CPM. A travel magazine sells an annual subscription for $19.99. A travel related mobile app is downloaded for $0.99. A travel reservation system could be licensed to tour operators for $25,000 per year. I think you get the point, they can be many variations here. So, pick the one that makes best sense for your business.
Thirdly, the most important piece of the puzzle is figuring out how your competitors drive revenues, and using them as a benchmark. This includes not setting your prices in excess of your competitors, for similar services (please re-read Lesson #20 on Setting Your Product and Pricing Strategy for more details here). It also includes not swimming upstream, by trying to sell through a new model, which may be better in the long run, but too hard to get your arms around in the short run, compared to your competitors models.
As an example, let's say you are trying to sell a coupon book for $500, that will lead to $2,500 in savings from the coupons therein over the course of a year. Someone that is interested in coupons, most likely isn't going to afford the $500 asking price to start, regardless of the underlying coupon value. And, even if they can afford the $500, a consumer may be skeptical they will actually use enough coupons therein to cover their upfront cost. In this case, maybe it is better to market $100 books for $500 worth of savings, much more digestible. Or, give the books away to consumers for free, and take a revenue share from the merchandisers as consumers redeem their coupons over time, or upfront from advertisers within the book?? You do not want to create any friction between consumers and them easily and willingly buying your products or services.
The last step in setting your revenue model is making sure it passes the sanity check: (i) is it logical within your industry; (ii) is its marketable to consumers and better than your competitors; (iii) is your revenue per transaction high enough to cover your costs and drive a profit (covering costs of the product, fulfillment and marketing); (iv) have you tested your marketing initiatives first, to ensure you are clear on where your cost of acquisition per customer will end up, and set your revenue plan from there; (v) can you turn your startup losses into profits with a 12-24 month period, and limit such losses at a digestable/fundable level for investors; and (vi) can a 10x return reasonably be acheived by your investors in a 3-5 year period. All of these pieces of the puzzle are tightly interwoven when trying to determine your revenue model.
There is no one right way to build a business and revenue plan. But, hopefully, this lesson will point you in the right direction towards building a winning model.
For future posts, please follow me at: www.twitter.com/georgedeeb
Monday, February 13, 2012
Lesson #107: Social Media Analytics & ROI
Posted By: George Deeb - 2/13/2012It feels like the Wild West out there in the social media marketing world. Advertisers are identifying the need to get in front of larg...
It feels like the Wild West out there in the social media marketing world. Advertisers are identifying the need to get in front of large social media audiences, like Facebook and Twitter, spending around $5BN a year in advertising on those two sites alone. And, there are tons of startups out there trying to pitch social media marketing, management and analytics tools. Which is good, because CMOs are starting to get more pressure from their CEOs and CFOs to clearly show an ROI from their social marketing spend, which has been lacking during the infancy of this channel. The problem is, with the glut of fragmented solutions in the marketplace, many of which are still learning the business themselves, it can be a daunting task to identify the right technologies to use to optimize your social marketing efforts.
To help me better learn this space, and to get an opinion about the best social media analytics tools in the market today, I engaged the help of my colleague, Joshua Sigler, a Senior Product Specialist at Sprout Social, a Chicago-based leader in social media analytics for SMB's, financially backed by Lightbank (the Groupon founders' venture capital fund). Joshua did his best to keep his assessment non-biased, and truly educate me on the wide range of solutions available in the market.
To start, I want to summarize what I feel are the various pieces to the social marketing technology puzzle, to ensure whatever strategies and tools you employ, include all of the various components you may need. This includes technologies to assist with: (i) social content management (e.g., publishing schedules, distribution to all platforms, communications with fans/followers); (ii) content analytics (e.g., retweet/click activity, fan/follower growth, trends over time); (iii) customer sentiment (e.g., are customers happy or angry with your brand/product); (iv) building a social CRM (e.g., identifying brand influencers most passionate and engaged with your product); (v) social commerce (e.g., allowing purchase directly from your Facebook brand page); (vi) campaign management (e.g., buying media on Facebook or Twitter, building creatives, tracking impressions/clicks), and (vii) ROI analytics (e.g., calculating brand awareness, consumer sentiment, e-commerce conversions from your social marketing spend on the inhouse team managing your efforts or the media dollars spent to accelerate growth).
In addition, it is important you research: (a) how many internal group partitions or team members can access the system; (b) how many separate social media accounts can be managed from your central dashboard; and (c) how these social tools can be used for task management by non-marketing departments (e.g., sales, customer service), to make sure they meet the needs of your specific business.
Right now, many of these technologies are fragmented from many different providers only tackling one piece of the puzzle, and hence, do not tackle the full suite of client needs discussed above. I expect to see a lot of industry consolidation in this space, as marketers are going to want all pieces of the puzzle aggregated into one easy-to-use social platform. There are a handful of companies that already provide numerous pieces of the puzzle, and I am going to focus on them below. But, I haven't found anybody that is doing everything yet, especially in a price point affordable to most startups.
The companies that are most progressed in this space, include companies with affordable solutions focused on SMB's (e.g., HootSuite, TweetDeck, SproutSocial) and companies with very expensive solutions focused on larger enterprise-scale clients (e.g., Radian6, Sysmos, Meltwater, ExactTarget). I have not personally played with each of the tools, and relied on Joshua to help me assess the plusses and minuses of these various technologies. So, make sure you kick the tires for yourself, to formulate your own opinions of what will work best for your needs.
In terms of the SMB facing technologies, I would summarize it as follows. TweetDeck (now owned by Twitter) is primarily a platform used to consume and post tweets. It's heavily focused on Twitter and it doesn't incorporate analytics or team functionality like some of the other tools. HootSuite has begun adding business oriented features in the past year, but is generally considered a consumer product, with the vast majority of their 3MM customers using the free version of their software. SproutSocial offers the largest mix of features for businesses, and even though it only offers a paid version of its platform, it is very affordable for SMBs with functionality on par with many of the enterprise facing solutions, which can be materially more expensive. As an example, Radian6 has an annual cost starting at $10,000 per year, whereas SproutSocial has full-featured plans starting at around $500 annually.
In terms of the enterprise facing technologies, Radian6 was the first mover in this space, building a large business on 1st generation social monitoring and analytics and was recently acquired by Salesforce.com. The early enterprise tools like Radian6 have a reputation of being confusing to use and lacking audience engagement features. I did not dig too deeply on Sysmos, Meltwater or Exact Target, since I focused on the affordable solutions for my startup readers, and simply offered up Radian6 as one alternative, if you require more features and functionality.
I am definitely not a pro on these technologies. So, if you feel that I am missing any important ones, please be sure to add them in the comments field below. But, it is clear to me, SproutSocial has built a really terrific product for the price point, and is even getting the attention of bigger enterprise clients. So, be sure to reach out to Joshua at 312-878-3787, if you have any questions from here.
Social media should be a component of any smart marketing plan, and it is critical you efficiently manage and track your efforts with tools like the ones discussed herein.
For future posts, please follow me at: www.twitter.com/georgedeeb




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